@article{ author = {AbdollahiNanvapishe, Anit}, title = {The Exponentiated Lomax – Rayleigh (E-LR) Distribution, Properties and Applications}, abstract ={In this paper a new four-parameter lifetime distribution named “the exponentiated Lomax – Rayleigh (E-LR) distribution” has been suggested that it has an increasing hazard rate for modeling lifetime data. The Lomax distribution has applications in economics, actuarial modelling, reliability modeling, lifetime and queuing problems and biological sciences. In this paper Firstly, the mathematical and statistical characteristics of the proposed distribution are presented, then the applications of the new distribution are studied using the real data set. Its first moment about origin and moments about mean have been obtained and expressions for skewness, kurtosis has been given. Various mathematical and statistical properties of the proposed distribution have been discussed. Estimation of its parameter has been discussed using the method of maximum likelihood. In the end, two applications of the new distribution have been discussed with two real lifetime data sets. The results also confirmed the suitability of the presented models for real data collection}, Keywords = {Lomax distribution, exponentiated Lomax – Rayleigh (E-LR) distribution, moments, lifetime data, parameter estimation and goodness of fit.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {1-17}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-321-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-321-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Ezati, Morteza and Heidari, Hasan and Meidari, Parvi}, title = {Estimating the Impact of Economic Sanctions on Employment in the Service Sector}, abstract ={The service sector is one of the most important sectors of the economy, accounting for a high percentage of GDP. Two-thirds of economic activity is devoted to services. The growing growth in the service sector is faster than that of the commodity trade, and in addition, the largest workforce is employed in the sector, accounting for 48 percent of Iran's total employment. Services constitute an important part of the world economy, especially developing countries. The first step of this study was to investigate the effect of economic sanctions on economic modeling by employing a new index factor analysis for economic modeling. The method of the system of simultaneous equations has been studied during 1977-2017. The results indicate that economic sanctions have had a negative effect on employment in the service sector by slowing economic growth in the service sector.}, Keywords = {Employment, economic growth, economic sanctions, service sector, system of simultaneous equations}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {19-54}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-322-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-322-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Souri, Maryam and Ganjali, Mojtab}, title = {Bayesian Determination of Sample Size in Longitudinal Studies with Binary Responses Using Random Effects Models}, abstract ={Sample size determination is important in all statistical studies including longitudinal studies. This is usually done by considering a target power to reduce the costs of sampling. Choosing the right sample size using efficient methods, ensures that the researcher achieve goal of the study, by spending the least amount of energy, time and money. In this article, using a method based on simulation and Bayesian power criterion, we determine the number of size required in longitudinal studies with binary responses, from a Bayesian point of view. Finally, mentioning a practical example, the proposed method is used.}, Keywords = {Bayesian analysis, longitudinal study, random effects model, bayesian power criterion.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {55-66}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-323-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-323-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Shabbak, Ashk}, title = {Modernization of Official Statistics, Its Concepts and Main Components}, abstract ={The great progress of technology and science make societies more complicated. In this regard, budget constraints as well as the growing statistical needs of users for high quality and timely statistics, have faced national statistical offices (NSOs) with many new challenges in recent years. In other hand, emergence of multiple data sources has increased the demand of these factors, together forced NSOs to review and redesign the systems and processes of producing and dissemination of official statistics. According to this, a new concept has been raised in the literature which is called the modernization of statistical systems. Given the importance of the issue and for greater coordination at the global level, United Nations Statistics Division asked the UN Economic Commission for Europe to study and act systematically in this field. For this purpose, UNECE in 2010 set up a special committee which is called the High-Level Group for the Modernization of Official Statistics. Numerous conferences and seminars with the participation of scientists, statisticians and experts in official statistics in different parts of the world have been held by international organizations and institutes of official statistics. The United Nations Statistics Commission, as the highest international body, in its 46th, 47th and 48th sessions in 2015, 2016 and 2017, has placed the issue of modernization of statistical systems on its agenda. In this article, while introducing the modernization of statistical systems, the literature on the subject and the studies conducted in this field are reviewed. Then, the dimensions and aspects of this concept will be discussed in detail, focusing on the role and position of the National Statistics Organization in the modern statistical system (NSS). Finally, considering the role of the statistical system in the country's decision-making system and good governance, looking at the third national plan for the development of the country's statistical system, the characteristics, structure and requirements of the NSO and NSS will be mentioned.}, Keywords = {Modern national statistics system, official statistics, national statistical office, national strategy for the development of statistics}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {67-119}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-324-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-324-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Hosseinzadeh, Jav}, title = {Population Window, Human Resource Management and Sustainable Economic Growth in the Second Phase of the Islamic Revolution of Iran}, abstract ={The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution issued “the Second Phase of the Revolution Statement” addressed to the Iranian nation" explained and interpreted the remarkable achievements of the last four decades, which is a document and a strategy to be implemented in the fifth decade of the revolution and its core is to entrust the job to young people aiming at comprehensive development. What is important in this statement is to address the young population by Supreme Leader saying that: " The young population under the age of 40, an important part of which is the result of a birth boom in the1980’s represents an invaluable prospect and opportunity for the country, and the most important optimistic potential capacity in the country is the talented and efficient human resource that enjoys deep, noble foundation of faith and religion. The youth of the current population of the country is an opportunity and a privilege, accordingly, considering the positive role of the population factor and the population window component, appropriate, planners should develop appropriate planning so that effective steps can be taken towards the nation’s economic, social and cultural development by managing human resources. Despite the positive outlook about the impact of demographic changes on economic growth, demographic dividend does not occur by itself and are essentially potential conditions that can only be realized through effective policy-making. In fact, this situation of the age structure of the population leads to the creation of opportunities for the growth in production and per capita income through mechanisms such as improving labor supply, savings, and human resources. On the other hand, during the last three decades, the data show a decrease in fertility from 1986 onwards. By studying the causes of the decrease and appropriate policies to increase fertility, the duration of using the population window can be increased. In this paper, the concepts of population window and demographic dividend have been looked through and the impact of these variables and human resources management on increase in sustainable economic growth as well as in the fertility rate has been studied by using the results of the population and housing censuses and the current situation of the population structure and developments.}, Keywords = {Population window, demographic dividend, human resource, sustainable economic growth, national accounts of transfers, fertility rate.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {121-154}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-325-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-325-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {MirfallahNasiri, Seyed Nematollah and Delazimi, Farideh and Taheripour, Hom}, title = {The Status of Young People who are not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET Rate)}, abstract ={The issue of employment and unemployment has always been one of the most important issues in the country. Considering the age structure of the country's population, adopting policies to create suitable job opportunities for young people and consequently reduce their unemployment is of particular importance. Lack of youth employment and economic pressure on families can expose them to social exclusion and economic uncertainty and fear of the uncertain future. The UN Agenda 2030 also sets out two goals for young people in achieving sustainable development: a) Full and effective access to employment and decent work for all women and men, including young people  b) Reduction of people who are not employed and are not studying and training. The present article studies based on the data of the General Census of Population and Housing in 2016 the situation of unemployed youth who are not studying or training at the national and provincial levels and compares the situation in Iran with some countries. In 2016, 36.2% of the country's youth were not employed and were not studying or gaining skills. This rate is about 24.0% for men and 49.0% for women.}, Keywords = {Unemployed youth, NEET rate, absolute gap, youth unemployment rate.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {155-172}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-326-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-326-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {MirfallahNasiri, Seyed Nematollah and Asghari, Samad and Sabaghi, Shahl}, title = {A Look at the Developments of Aging in Iran and the Coverage of Social Support for the Elderly (Provincial Adaptation)}, abstract ={In recent years, increasing life expectancy and decreasing fertility rates in the wake of medical advances has led to the emergence of an aging phenomenon in the country, which is rising steeply. Now, the question is: what is the current state, how old are provinces in the country, and what proportion of the elderly are covered by social insurance and public support institutions? In this article, the monitoring of the aging status in different parts of the country (provinces) has been studied using the three indicators of "age ratio", "sex ratio of aging" and "age dependency ratio". Also, the share of the elderly with the support of insurance funds and public institutions providing support services to the elderly is determined by the province. The results showed that in the period between 2011 and 2011, the population of elderly people aged 60 and more than three times the total population of the country has grown. Also, in 1395, Gilan, Mazandaran, Central and Hamedan provinces have the highest proportion of elderly people. In 80% of the provinces, the share of older women is higher than that of men. Of the 7.5 million elderly people, they account for 63 percent of sustainable social support. Also, the share of coverage of social support in 18 provinces of the country is more than the total share of the country.}, Keywords = {Elderly, elderly ratio, aging sex ratio, elderly dependency ratio, social support.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {173-192}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-327-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-327-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Zarei, Saeed Reza and Boroumandi, Fahimeh}, title = {Ranking of Iran Provinces Based on Changes in Major Labor Force Indicators in the Period 2015-2019, Using the TOPSIS Method}, abstract ={Increase of employment and reduction of unemployment are the most important indicators for community development. Statistical indicators derived from the implementation of the Labor Force Survey design are useful in evaluating employment policies and performances. But, it should also emphasize that using an indicator (such as the unemployment rate) alone cannot be a suitable criterion for assessing the employment performance of the provinces, so it is necessary to use a set of major indicators of labor force design; in order to achieve a complete view of executive performance of employment, realization of development plans and so on.  In this study, the provinces of Iran are ranked based on Major Labor Force indicators during 2015 to 2019 by using TOPSIS method. The weight of these indicators is determined using the CRITIC method. Then the ranking results are compared with the ranking of provinces only based on the unemployment rate. The results show that North Khorasan, Fars and Mazandaran provinces have the desired performance during this period.}, Keywords = {Ranking of provinces, unemployment rate, labor force survey design, TOPSIS method and CRITIC weighting method.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {193-208}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-328-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-328-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Malekpour, Kiana and FalahMohsenkhani, Zohreh}, title = {The Examination of Employees Statistical Conformity from the Labour Force Survey with the Administrative Records}, abstract ={Programming in the employment fields is the most important and fundamental need of the country, which requires labour force indexes during the periods of time. Now, Statistical Centre of Iran, as the resource of the official statistics in the country is accountable for presenting those data, but other organizations and offices in the country present the relevant figures on this field in lower levels. By equalising the required definitions, concepts and categories in the official statistics references, according to the definitions, concepts and categories of Labour Force Survey, the intermixed tables of the employment estimations can be offered in the required levels. Then, step by step, statistics of these tables will be corrected so that the difference between the figures of the two resources will decrease as much as possible. In this article, the interested population, the employees have been considered and its intermixed tables have been presented on the basis of the figures obtained from Labour Force Survey and administrative records related to the insurance of Social Security Organization, Health Insurance Organization and other social insurance funds (as much as possible) in the years between 2005 and 2018. The results show this difference is lower and lower during the interested periods.}, Keywords = {Labour force survey, wage and salary earner employment, register statistics reconciling, statistical sources.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {209-236}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-329-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-329-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Taheri, Saeed and Hosseinzadeh, Maryam}, title = {Analysis of the Welfare Situation in Iran Based on Global Standard Indicators}, abstract ={This study aims to explore the welfare status of the Islamic Republic of Iran in terms of global Legatum welfare indicators and identify ways of achieving welfare at the world standard level. In addition, comparative reviews of the Legatum welfare indicators refers over the past years have been conducted to encourage interested audiences to look at the distinctive aspects of this indicators with other indexes to gain a deeper understanding of the welfare and performance of governments. This Study is conducted through a library and comparative approach and points to the approaches and methodology of these indicators. In addition too focusing on the concepts, backgrounds, principles and foundations of welfare, and on how to collect data, indicators and calculating the welfare rank comparatively shows the impact of these attributes in the counties of the world on their overall well-being. This paper also addresses the challenges of the world in achieving higher levels of prosperity and the role of crises, regional conflicts on the one hand, and economic and business prosperity in countries on the other hand. In addition, to provide an Image of the republic’s position Islamic Republic of Iran in MENA Region (Middle East and North Africa) And within Muslim countries, it has compared welfare indicators with these two groups of countries. The results of this study show that the Islamic Republic of Iran, in despite of many efforts over the past several decades has not achieved a position not only in the countries of the world yet, but also in the countries of the MENA region and even in the Islamic countries.}, Keywords = {Welfare, economic quality, business environment, governance, personal freedom, social capital, safe and security, education, health, natural environment, well being, life quality, prosperity index, prosperity ranking.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {237-281}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-330-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-330-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {GhafariFard, Mohammad and Rezaei, Eslamodi}, title = {Assessing the Capacity of Economic Prosperity in Nine Regions Based on Iran}, abstract ={Awareness of the available resources and economic potentials of the regions is essential for growth and development. One of the important economic indicators which shows efficient utilization of human and natural resources in a region is the economic growth, production and the value added of the various economic sectors. The purpose of the present study is to achieve the relative advantages of each region by ranking the value added of different economic activities. Therefore, first, using the hierarchical analysis method, we weighed each of the 18 economic sub-sectors for our study and then in order to get results we use the data available at the statistical center for analysis by using TOPSIS approach for the year 2015. The result suggests that (with oil and gas value added) region 4 (Isfahan, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari, Khuzestan) was ranked first with a coefficient of 0.6784 while Area 3 (Ilam, Kermanshah, Lorestan, Hamedan) with coefficient of 0.0650 obtains the last position. However, without oil and gas value added, zone 8 (Sistan Baluchestan, Kerman, Hormozgan, Yazd) was ranked first with a coefficient of 0.5587 while area 3 (Ilam, Kermanshah, Lorestan, Hamedan) ranked lowest with a coefficient of 0.0282. In addition, the TOPSIS approach result for all the provinces of Iran shows that, if we consider the value added for oil and gas, the Khuzestan province takes the first place while the Ilam province gets the last position. Pertinently, without value-added of oil and gas, Tehran province tops the list while Ilam province still maintains the last position.}, Keywords = {Value added, economic growth, TOPSIS, hierarchical analysis, province.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {283-307}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-331-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-331-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {Nourollahi, Taha and Khodamoradi, Hesam and FaghihKhoushabi, Atieh}, title = {Demography and the Coronavirus Pandemic}, abstract ={Abstract. One of the most urgent policy issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe concerns the extent and ways in which demographics have determined different patterns of mortality between groups and regions, and whether and how the pandemic and its economic consequences will affect population dynamics in the future. Post-pandemic policy evaluations on the spread of COVID-19 and the impact of lockdown measures should include a thorough analysis that goes beyond health indicators. They should also assess the role played by key demographic indicators like age and family structures, co-residence patterns, individual characteristics such as socio-economic status, ethnicity and mobility. During the current COVID-19 crisis, there is a high degree of uncertainty in decision-making processes. In addition to the ad-hoc consultancy required during any type of crisis, a more permanent monitoring system based on collected evidence of population health issues and beyond is needed. It should function in close collaboration with experts from research, policy, the economy and societal organizations to overcome silo-thinking. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the crucial importance of effectively tackling social and health inequalities in Europe.  }, Keywords = {.}, volume = {30}, Number = {1}, pages = {309-321}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-332-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-332-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2019} } @article{ author = {AbdollahiNanvapisheh, Anit}, title = {The Exponentiated Poisson-Lindley Distribution; Features and Applications in Reliability}, abstract ={Abstract. In this paper a new three-parameter lifetime distribution named “the Exponentialed Lindley-Poisson (E-LP) distribution” has been suggested that it has an  increasing, decreasing and invers bathtube hazard rate depending on the parameter values. The (E-LP) distribution has applications in economics, actuarial modeling, reliability modeling, lifetime and queuing problems and biological sciences. Firstly, the mathematical and statistical characteristics of the proposed distribution are presented, then the applications of the new distribution are studied using the real data set. expressions for moments, skewness and kurtosis have been given. Various mathematical and statistical properties of the proposed distribution have been discussed. Estimation of its parameter has been discussed using the method of maximum likelihood. A simulation study is given. In the end, two applications of the new distribution have been discussed with two real lifetime data sets. The results also confirmed the suitability of the presented models for real data collection.  }, Keywords = {Lindley-Poisson, Exponentialed Lindley-Poisson, moments, lifetime data.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {323-339}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-345-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-345-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {RajiAsadabadi, Mohsen and SeyedNourani, Mohammadrez}, title = {The Effect of Urbanization on Income Inequality in Iran}, abstract ={Abstract. The dramatic growth of urbanization with the expansion of cities in terms of size and population has led to the creation of a variety of administrative structures to provide different types of administrative services and combinations. And bureaucratic and social mismatches cause corruption and unequal distribution of income and class fault. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of urbanization on income inequality in Iran during the period 1365-95. Self-explanatory model, Johansson-Joselius method and error correction method were used to analyze the subject. The results indicate that in the long run, there is a positive and significant relationship between urbanization and income inequality in Iran and a one percent increase in variables, GDP, employment, foreign direct investment, business returns, corruption, inflation and production share in production. Gross domestic product increases income inequality by 0.27, 2.39, 6.34, 5.5, 8.49, 5.28, and 1.05%, respectively, and the effect of corruption on the mentioned variables Income inequality is greater than other variables, and ways to combat corruption should be prioritized. Also, the results based on the error correction coefficient indicate that in each period, about 0.83 of the short-run imbalance is adjusted to achieve long-run equilibrium.    }, Keywords = {Urbanization, income inequality, error correction, Joe Hanson-Joselius, corruption.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {340-359}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-346-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-346-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {Mehregan, Ali and Ahmadian, Maji}, title = {A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Rainfall Fluctuations on Rural Poverty in Iran}, abstract ={Abstract. A large part of the country's poor live in the villages of this land and are engaged in agriculture and related jobs. Climate changes will have a significant impact on their lives by changing the amount of rainfall. To plan for a proper response to these climate changes, it is necessary to first properly analyze and explain the effects of this change. In this study, we decided to measure the effect of rainfall fluctuations on rural poverty in the period 1361-92. The statistical population of this article consists of people living in rural areas of the country. Due to the fact that dealing with poverty is a long-term issue, ARDL analysis has been used in econometrics. The results confirm the positive relationship between rural poverty and rainfall fluctuations. In addition, this study underestimates the relationship between rural poverty and facilities to the agricultural sector, which indicates the inefficiency of the funds, allocated for the provision of facilities in this sector.  }, Keywords = {Climate change, rural poverty, rainfall fluctuations, EGARCH, ARDL.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {361-385}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-355-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-355-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {Fathi, Elham}, title = {The Phenomenon of Population Aging in Iran}, abstract ={Elham Fathi Statistical Center of Iran   Abstract. In the past, few people reached old age, but in todaychr('39')s world, advances in technology and health have allowed people to live longer and die at an older age, so Now more people can experience aging. On the other hand, since almost all countries of the world have gone through or are going through a period of high fertility and fertility, naturally more people are reaching old age at the same time than in the past. Globally, after reducing mortality and the likelihood of children surviving into adulthood, overall fertility declined. As a result, the number of elderly people in societies has increased and now the population of some countries is aging and in other countries it is expected to experience this phenomenon in the future. Therefore, it seems useful and necessary to study the trend of aging indicators in the Iranian population. The research method is secondary and technical analysis and futures research. The required information was obtained from census data and registration statistics. After defining the elderly population, the aging trend of the Iranian population was analyzed and then the future of Iranchr('39')s aging was predicted and analyzed with different scenarios. The results of the forecast showed that with any scenario, Iran will face the phenomenon of population aging in the future, and this is inevitable. Even if fertility increases, the current young population (born in the 1960s) will reach old age in three or four decades, which requires a "healthy aging" policy. However, aging is not a population crisis, but often demographic structures encounter aging during the transition and transfer of population, which is normal.  }, Keywords = {Population aging, population aging, population forecasting.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {387-413}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-351-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-351-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {Shirkavand, Zahra and AliakbariSaba, Roshanak}, title = {Design Based Estimation of Finite Population Mean in Ranked Set Sampling}, abstract ={Abstract. This Article introduce method of ranked set sampling with replacement (RSSWR) in finite population and express how to computing samples of inclusion probability for this method. The Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwtz estimators using auxiliary variables introduce for this design and use 2011-12 Urban Households Income and Income and Expenditure survey data, gathered for Tehran by statistical center of Iran to show some estimators introduced for RSS design are more efficient than corresponding estimators in SRSWOR design.  }, Keywords = {Finite population, Hansen-Hurwits estimator, Horvitz-Thompson estimator, inclusion probability, ratio estimator, ranked set sampling.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {415-428}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-347-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-347-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {FarashKhayalu, Nooreddin and RabieeDastjerdi, Hamidreza and Sadeghi, Rasoul}, title = {Spatial Segregation in Demography: A Short Review}, abstract ={  Abstract. Spatial has always been an inherent component of demography, and demographic processes are inherently spatiotemporal. Recognizing the importance of spatial in general and spatial segregation in particular in demographic analysis has created new positions in demography and its conceptual and analytical frameworks. The notion of spatial segregation refers to the distribution of social groups, infrastructure, activities, or any distribution of certain elements in space. Despite the different demographic groups, how to access different urban services, employment, education, health, occupational services in Iran, little research on spatial segregation analysis has been conducted in demography yet. The methodology of this paper is a systematic review of the literature on spatial segregation, which is a kind of secondary study and analysis of previous studies. The results show that spatial analysis has a high potential for social sciences and interdisciplinary research. Even how a given society responds to each of the demographic transitions depends on the spatial and spatial context in which that society exists. The application of emerging fields of spatial sciences, spatial analysis, and statistics in demography allows us to observe various changes in demographic behaviors (marriage, fertility, mortality, migration, health, and wellness) in the context of space.  }, Keywords = {Spatial demography, spatial segregation, fertility, migration, health and mortality.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {429-460}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-352-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-352-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {Shabbak, Ashkan and Hosseinzadeh, Javad and Shiri, Mohamm}, title = {Concepts and Foundations of Data Analysis and Statistical Information in Modern Statistical System}, abstract ={Abstract. One of the most important fundamental principles of official statistics, is the principle of Relevance, Impartiality, and professional ethics. Trust and ensure of the stakeholders and users of official statistics to the professional independency of National Statistical Offices (NSO) and the National Statistical System (NSS), as a social capital, is one of the most important factors for the success of these organizations in producing and disseminating accurate statistics. Regarding the important role of official statistics in the development and progress of each country, this trust and social capital is very essential. Therefore, one of the challenges for NSS and NSOs, has been to provide analysis on disseminated statistics. Due to this concern, in the past, NSOs, did not consider analysis as their duty. However, in regard to recent advanced progress and achievements in science and technology, the need for changes in approaches and methods of producing and disseminating official statistics has become inevitable. Therefore, in recent years, especially since 2010, the issue of modernization of official statistics discussed and pursued increasingly, in the literature and highest levels of reference and related international organizations. In this article, an attempt has been made to study foresaid subjects and deal with backgrounds and contexts of analysis in official statistics and its approach and its Interpretations in a modern NSS. Also tried to explain and define the features of proper analysis in modern and its necessity.  }, Keywords = {Data and statistical information, official statistics, modernization of the national statistical system, knowledge pyramid.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {461-502}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-348-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-348-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {Alimondegari, Maliheh and Banihashemi, Fariba Sadat}, title = {The Trend of Changes in the Unmarried Population Due to Divorce in the General Population and Housing Censuses of Iran:1986-2016}, abstract ={Abstract. The present article aims to study the trend of changes in the unmarried population due to divorce during the 5 census periods of 1986-2016 and some of their demographic, economic and social characteristics in the provinces of the country. Findings indicate that the highest proportion of unmarried people due to divorce to married people in the provinces of Tehran, Alborz and Kermanshah in all census periods between the provinces is observed for both men and women. Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Yazd, Kohgiluyeh, Boyer-Ahmad and Ilam are the provinces that have been at the bottom of this list for most of these years. The illiteracy rate among unmarried people due to divorce has been lower in all years of the census than among married people. This process is the same for both sexes. Men who are unmarried due to divorce are more unemployed than employed, and divorced women are in dire need of a job market. After divorce, men are more likely to return to their former families, while women form independent families and appear as heads of households. Continuous study of the causes and consequences of divorce is necessary to prevent a sudden encounter with a critical situation. It is suggested that for a deeper study of divorce as well as its study in the geographical area of the country, a national family survey should be conducted and access to longitudinal data in the field of marriage and divorce developments and family dynamics should be provided.  }, Keywords = {Unmarried population due to divorce, literacy, employment status, living arrangements, general population and housing census.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {503-518}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-349-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-349-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {Fazeli, Arash and Fayyaz, Saee}, title = {Application of Open Data for Official Statistics, Case Study Data of Instagram Social Network}, abstract ={Abstract. Open data notion is based on the idea that emphasizes on free access of users to data to reuse them on their own and republish the result far from some restrictions of copyright, patent etc.  Due to the ever increasing trend of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), more data is producing every day and this brings brilliant opportunity for National Statistical Offices (NSOs) that are responsible for producing official statistics to produce more and more official statistics on lesser cost and more velocity. Beside, in modernization process of statistical system using the alterative data sources has been under considerations and open data is salient example. Labour force statistics in Iran has been one the prominent kind of official statistics which is conducting quarterly and it results put the center of attentions. In the other sides, there has been increasing trend in the number of employment as a result of boosting in the number of social network users. In this study, the Instagram data as a second favorable social network in Iran was used as criteria for macro validation of employment statistics. Interestingly, the obtained results from statistical hypothesis testing revealed that there is a significant relationship between employee statistics from surveys and Instagram employee trend though they are mostly unregistered. These results can be used by statisticians as a macro criterion for validation of employee trend from survey.  }, Keywords = {Official statistics, open data, labour force statistics, non-observed employment, social network and Instagram.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {519-530}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-353-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-353-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {Khodabandehloo, Hadi and RezaeiGhohroodi, Zahr}, title = {Statistical Matching in ‘Labour Force’ and ‘Time Use’ Surveys}, abstract ={Abstract. In the National Statistical Systems‎, ‎some parts of the official statistics required for development planning and evidence base management are collected through sampling survey‎. ‎Due to the high cost of sampling process‎, ‎as well as nonresponses‎, ‎it may not be possible to collect all of the expected variables in a survey‎.‎In order to obtain a comprehensive and complete source of information‎, ‎it is wise and important to integrate all sources of information from different surveys‎, ‎to minimize the shortcomings of each survey and to maximize their advantages‎.‎In this paper‎, ‎we use non-parametric methods at micro-level to integrate two information sources of ‘labour force survey’ and ‘time-use survey’ in Fall 2015‎. ‎In this way‎, ‎in addition to increasing the coverage of the variables from the two sources‎, ‎we could also study the peculiarities of work and life quality‎, ‎simultaneously‎.  }, Keywords = {Statistical matching, labour force survey, Time use survey, nonparametric method, official statistics.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {531-548}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-350-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-350-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {Zanjiran, Fatemeh and Motarjem, Kiomars}, title = {Modeling Factors Affecting Unemployment Duration Using Survival Analysis}, abstract ={Abstract. In many statistical studies‎, ‎we are faced with variables such as duration of unemployment‎, ‎duration of illness to death‎, ‎the lifespan of a piece‎, ‎duration of approval of a bill in the parliament‎, ‎and other similar cases‎. ‎In such studies‎, ‎the aim is to find and model the sources that affect the duration of the study period to control the mentioned period by identifying and changing the sources of risk‎. ‎In this paper‎, ‎the concepts of survival analysis have been used to model the factors affecting the duration of unemployment‎. ‎To investigate the effects of explanatory variables on the duration of unemployment‎, ‎the Cox proportional hazard model and frailty have been used‎. ‎The data of this study were collected to investigate the effect of gender‎, ‎age‎, ‎education level‎, ‎and marital status as predictor variables affecting the duration of unemployment‎. ‎The sample includes 546 people with information about the start date and end date of the unemployment period for each person from the beginning of April 1397 to the beginning of April 1398‎. ‎The results show that the length of the unemployment period is affected by variables such as education level‎, ‎gender‎, ‎and marital status‎.  }, Keywords = {Frailty model‎, ‎cox proportional hazards model‎, ‎survival data‎, ‎censorship‎, ‎unemployment duration.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {549-568}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-354-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-354-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} } @article{ author = {GoodarziMasoumi, Fatemeh}, title = {Classical and Bayesian Inference in Two Parameter Exponential Distribution with Randomly Censored Data}, abstract ={Abstract. This paper deals with the classical and Bayesian estimation for two parameter exponential distribution having scale and location parameters with randomly censored data. The censoring time is also assumed to follow a two parameter exponential distribution with different scale but same location parameter. The main stress is on the location parameter in this paper. This parameter has not yet been studied with random censoring in literature. Fitting and using exponential distribution on the range (0,∞), specially when the minimum observation in the data set is significantly large, will give estimates far from accurate. First we obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters with their variances and asymptotic confidence intervals. Some other classical methods of estimation such as method of moment, L-moments and least squares are also employed. Next, we discuss the Bayesian estimation of the unknown parameters using Gibbs sampling procedures under generalized entropy loss function with inverted gamma priors and Highest Posterior Density credible intervals. We also consider some reliability and experimental characteristics and their estimates. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to compare the proposed estimates. Two real data examples are given to illustrate the importance of the location parameter.  }, Keywords = {Random censoring, maximum likelihood estimation, Bayes estimation, reliability and experimental characteristics.}, volume = {30}, Number = {2}, pages = {569-602}, publisher = {statistical Center of Iran}, url = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-356-en.html}, eprint = {http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-356-en.pdf}, journal = {Ijoss Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies}, issn = {2538-5798}, eissn = {2538-578x}, year = {2020} }