Iranian Journal of Official Statistics Studies
مجلهی بررسیهای آمار رسمی ایران
مجلهی بررسیها
Basic Sciences
http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir
1
admin
2538-5798
2538-578x
8
7
14
8888
13
fa
jalali
1399
5
1
gregorian
2020
8
1
31
1
online
1
fulltext
fa
بررسی رابطه بین باز بودن تجاری و متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در کشورهای اسلامی عضو گروه D8 مبتنی بر رویکرد Panel VAR
The Study of the Relationship between Trade Openness and Macroeconomic Variables in Islamic Countries of the G8 Based on Panel VAR Approach
تخصصي
Special
كاربردي
Applicable
<span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="tab-stops:0cm"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">چکیده.</span></span></span></b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black"> امروزه تجارت خارجی در</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">هدایت</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">برنامههای رشد و توسعه</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">اقتصادی جوامع نقش</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">کلیدی دارد و با</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">توجه</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">به</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">درجهی</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">توسعهیافتگی کشورها، اثرات</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">ناهمگونی</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">بر اقتصاد</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">دارد.</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">لذا</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">این</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تحقیق</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">با</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تمرکز</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">بر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">کشورهای</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">در</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">حال</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">توسعه و عضو گروه </span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">D8</span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">،</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">که</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">ایران</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">هم</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">در</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">این گروه</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">است به مطالعه تأثیر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">باز بودن</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تجاری</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">بر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">متغیرهای</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">کلان</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">اقتصادی میپردازد. بدین منظور</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">با استفاده از روش خود توضیحبرداری (</span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">VAR</span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">)، تأثیر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">باز بودن</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تجاری بر متغیرهای</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">رشد</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">اقتصادی،</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تورم</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">و</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">رشد اشتغال طی سالهای (2017-1994) در کشورهای </span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">D8</span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black"> بررسی شده است. ویژگی اصلی روش</span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">PVAR </span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black"> شوکهای به هم پیوسته و همزمان در مدل است که میتوان گروه بزرگی از کشورها را با ویژگیهای متفاوت مورد بررسی قرار داد. نتایج</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">حاصل</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">از</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">توابع</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">واکنش</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">ضربهای</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">نشان</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">میدهد</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">که</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">در</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">کوتاهمدت</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">افزایش</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">درجه</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">باز بودن تجاری</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">رشد</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">اقتصادی،</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تورم</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">و نرخ</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">رشد اشتغال</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">را در کشورهای گروه</span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">D8 </span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black"> افزایش داده است</span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">.</span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black"> همچنین،</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">نتایج</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">نشان</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">میدهد</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">که</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">در</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">بلندمدت</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تغییر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">ناگهانی</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">به</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">اندازه</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">یک</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">انحراف</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">معیار</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">در متغیر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">باز بودن</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تجاری</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">تأثیری</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">بر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">سه</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">متغیر</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">یاد شده</span></span></span> <span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">ندارد</span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">.</span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black"> لذا به نظر میرسد کشورهای </span></span></span><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black">D8</span></span></span><span lang="FA" style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="font-family:Yas"><span style="color:black"> با اتخاذ استراتژی منطقهگرایی در جهت فرایند جهانی شدن و خلق مزیتهای نسبی جدید، میتوانند برخورداری از منافع حاصل از تجارت آزاد را گسترش دهند.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<div class="WordSection1"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="text-autospace:none"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Abstract.</span></span></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black"> Today, foreign trade plays a key role in leading the economic growth and development programs of societies and has heterogeneous effects on the countries’ economies due to the degree of development of countries. This study focuses on developing countries and members of the D8 group and investigates the effect of trade openness on macroeconomic variables; also Iran is in this group. Therefore, the impact of trade openness on the variables such as economic growth, inflation and employment growth has been studied during 1997-2017 in D8 countries by using Vector Auto regressive (VAR) model. The main feature of the PVAR method that can be studied a large group of countries with different characteristics is the interconnected and simultaneous shocks in this model. The results of impulse response functions show that in the short run increasing of trade openness has led to increasing of out put growth, inflation and growth of employment rate. Moreover, the results show that one unit change in standard error of trade openness has no effect in the long run on three above variables. Therefore, it seems that the members of the G8 by adopting strategies such as regionalism in the process of globalization and creation of new comparative advantages, could expand the possibility of enjoying the benefits of Trade Openness.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
باز بودن تجاری, رشد اقتصادی, تورم, رشد اشتغال, خود توضیحبرداری (VAR).
trade openness, economic growth, employment growth, inflation, vector autoregressive
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http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-266-2&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
Elaheh
Bohloolvand
الهه
بهلولوند
ebohloolvand@yahoo.com
10031947532846001297
10031947532846001297
Yes
Hadi
Arabi
هادی
عربی
hadiarabi@gmail.com
10031947532846001298
10031947532846001298
No