fa تحلیل روند مرگ و میر ناشی از مصرف مواد مخدر در نقاط مختلف جهان با استفاده از روش رگرسیون نقطه اتصال تخصصي Special كاربردي Applicable <span style="font-family:Tahoma;"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:normal"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span lang="AR-SA"><span style="color:black">در این مطالعه، روند مرگ‌ و میر ناشی از مصرف مواد مخدر در مناطق مختلف جهان از سال 1990 تا 2019 بر اساس شاخص اجتماعی-جمعیت‌شناسی در سه سطح (۱. پایین/متوسط روبه پایین، ۲. متوسط، ۳. متوسط روبه بالا/بالا) در کل جهان، با استفاده از داده‌های پایگاه بار جهانی بیماری‌ها طبق نتایج بررسی شد. به طور کلی در سطوح شاخص اجتماعی-جمعیت‌شناسی پایین، متوسط رو به پایین، متوسط و متوسط رو به بالا طی این ۳۰ سال یک روند نزولی در میزان مرگ ‌و میر مشاهده شد. گرچه کشورهای با سطح شاخص اجتماعی-جمعیت‌شناسی پایین افزایش ناچیزی داشتند ولی کشورهای با سطح شاخص اجتماعی-جمعیت‌شناسی بالا یک روند صعودی قابل توجه در میزان مرگ ‌و میر ناشی از مصرف مخدر در این سال‌ها را تجربه کردند. در طی این ۳۰ سال میانگین تغییرات سالانه کشورهای با سطح شاخص اجتماعی-جمعیت‌شناسی متوسط رو به بالا/بالا را حدود ۴ در ۱۰۰.۰۰۰ نفرجمعیت و در کشورهای با سطح پایین/متوسط روبه پایین و متوسط این شاخص را به ترتیب معادل ۰٫۵- و ۲٫۵-در ۱۰۰.۰۰۰ نفر جمعیت برآورد کردیم.</span></span> <span lang="AR-SA"><span style="color:black">در این مطالعه، از مدل رگرسیونی نقطه اتصال با استفاده از نرم‌افزار</span></span><span dir="LTR"><span style="color:black">Joinpoint </span></span><span style="color:black">&nbsp;جهت تجزیه و تحلیل آماری استفاده شد.</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; <span style="font-family:Tahoma;"><span style="font-size:12pt"><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">In</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">this</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">study,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">the</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">trend</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">of</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black"> mortality rate from opioid abuse </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">in</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">different</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">regions</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">of</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black"> the </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">world</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">from</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">1990</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">to</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">2019</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">was</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">investigated</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">based</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">on</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">socio-demographic</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">index</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">at</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">three</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">levels</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">(1. low/low middle,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">2.</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">middle,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">3.</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">high/high</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">middle)</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">worldwide,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">using</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">data</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">from</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">the</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Global</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Burden</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">of</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Disease.</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">Results</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black"> i</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">n</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">general,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">at</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">the</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">low,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">low middle</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">, middle </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">and</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">high</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">middle socio-demographic</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">index</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">levels</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">during</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">these</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">30</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">years</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">have</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">seen</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">a</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">downward</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">trend</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">in</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">mortality</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">rates,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">although</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">countries</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">with</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">low</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">socio-demographic</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">indicators</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">have</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">experienced</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">a</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">slight</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">increase.</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">In</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">countries</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">with</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">high</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">socio-demographic</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">level,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">there</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">is</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">a</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">significant</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">upward</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">trend</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">in</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">the</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black"> rate from opioid abuse </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">between</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">the</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">years.</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">During</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">these</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">30</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">years,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">the</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">average</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">annual</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">changes (APC)</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">of</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">countries</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">with</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">high/high</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">middle social-demographic</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">index</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">levels</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black"> of </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">about</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">4</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">per</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">100,000</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">people</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">and</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">in</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">countries</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">with</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">low/ low middle</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">and</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">middle</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">levels</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">of</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">this</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">index</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">were</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">estimated</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">to</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">be</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">-0.5</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">and</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">-2.5</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">per</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">100,000,</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">respectively.</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">In</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">this</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">study,</span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black"> Joinpoint Regression Analysis </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">was</span></span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="background:white"><span style="color:black">used.</span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp; مرگ‌ومیر ناشی از مصرف مواد مخدر, شاخص اجتماعی-جمعیت‌شناسی, تحلیل روند. Mortality rate from opioid abuse, socio-demographic index, trend analysis. 23 43 http://ijoss.srtc.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-352-2&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Nasrin Akhoondi نسرین آخوندی akhondinasrin@gmail.com 10031947532846001485 10031947532846001485 Yes Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب Fatemeh Masaebi فاطمه مصائبی fatemeh.mb71@yahoo.com 10031947532846001486 10031947532846001486 No Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences دانشگاه علوم پزشکی شهید بهشتی Farid Zayeri فرید زائری fzayeri@gmail.com 10031947532846001487 10031947532846001487 No Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences