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The Impact of Demographic Changes on the Country's Pension Funds
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Tahereh Amini *   , Mohammad Shiri |
| Statistical research and Training Center |
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Abstract: (2 Views) |
As Iran enters the second stage of demographic transition, the increase in the elderly population has created a serious financial challenge for pension funds. This study analyzes the forecast data of the Statistical Center of Iran (1415–1395) and uses R software to examine the spatial heterogeneity of the distribution of the population aged 60 and above in provinces and its consequences for pension funds. The findings show that the aging process in the provinces is not uniform; some provinces will face the density of the elderly population sooner due to a higher acceleration of the decline in fertility rates and an increase in life expectancy. This heterogeneity imposes an unbalanced financial burden on provincial funds, such that provinces with a higher share of the elderly (such as Gilan, Mazandaran, and Markazi) will face the crisis of resource deficit sooner. In contrast, younger provinces (such as Sistan and Baluchestan) have a temporary opportunity to reform the structure of the funds. The results emphasize that uniform national policymaking, regardless of provincial differences in the aging trajectory, will exacerbate the fund crisis. It is suggested that demographic risk-based financing models and interprovincial resource transfers be put on the agenda. This study highlights the need to adopt regional strategies to manage the aging challenge.
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| Keywords: Population Aging, Population Forecasting, Pension Funds, Provincial Disparities. |
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Full-Text [PDF 777 kb]
(5 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2025/10/29 | Accepted: 2025/11/16 | Published: 2026/03/1
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