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Studying the Structure and Composition of the Rural Population of Iran and Its Future until the Horizon of 1430
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Elham Fathi *   |
| Statistical Center of Iran |
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Abstract: (4 Views) |
The fate of most countries in the world, in every period of history, has depended on the fate of villages. One of the distinctive features of the village is the provision of human nutrition in such a way that it can continue its life without relying on the city. Socrates' beautiful sentence "A military can rule Athens that can provide food for its people" confirms the above. On the other hand, rural development is a location-based program and its ultimate goal is to improve the living standards of rural populations. Therefore, awareness of the rural population, its transformation in the past, understanding the current situation and predicting its future developments are considered to be the most important tools for development and various planning in rural areas. The present research is a library and technical research. In other words, it has been tried to first examine the trend of changes in the rural population of Iran and the indicators affecting population growth. Then, with the help of the latest census results and available registration data, predict the population of rural areas of Iran by age and sex. A combined method and Spectrum software were used to predict the population. Based on the results of this research, in the future, the rural population of Iran will continue to experience negative growth. It is expected that the country's rural population will decrease to about 15.4 million people in 1430. This position is despite the fact that the rural population of Iran was counted more than 20.7 million people in the 2015 census. With the reduction of the rural population, the share of children and teenagers has decreased, while the share of the elderly population is increasing. In addition, the feminization of the aging population will occur in rural areas.
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| Keywords: Population Forecast, Population Structure and Composition, Rural Population, Aging Population. |
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Full-Text [PDF 922 kb]
(1 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2024/05/12 | Accepted: 2024/12/29 | Published: 2025/09/1
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